Is the South Jersey Shore real estate market favoring buyers or sellers in July 2025?

The South Jersey Shore market remains balanced, with neither buyers nor sellers having a clear advantage. Inventory is stable and homes are still selling close to list price.

What is the new mansion tax in New Jersey for 2025?

As of June 30, 2025, the mansion tax is now paid by the seller, not the buyer. Rates start at 1% for homes over $1 million and rise up to 3.5% for homes over $3.5 million.

How does Trump’s new tax reform affect real estate?

The One Big Beautiful Bill makes the mortgage interest deduction and QBI deduction permanent, raises the SALT cap, and protects 1031 exchanges—providing major tax advantages for homeowners and real estate professionals.

Will mortgage rates drop soon?

The Federal Reserve has shown little support for a rate cut in July 2025. Most economists expect potential cuts in late 2025, keeping rates elevated in the short term.

July 2025 South Jersey Shore Real Estate Market Update: Prices, Inventory & New Tax Impacts

National Real Estate Market Overview

As we turn the corner into the second half of 2025, the U.S. real estate landscape continues to evolve with regional nuances, federal policy shifts, and changing buyer-seller dynamics shaping every transaction. For South Jersey Shore homeowners, buyers, and investors—from Avalon to Ventnor, Ocean City to Cape May—here’s your comprehensive and data-backed July 2025 market update, with key insights from both the national scene and our local South Jersey Shore market encompassing Atlantic and Cape May Counties.

Inventory Surge Continues

The national housing market posted its 20th consecutive month of inventory growth, with active listings up 28.9% year-over-year, reaching 1.08 million homes in June—the highest post-pandemic level yet. However, we’re still 12.9% below pre-pandemic norms, showing the market hasn’t fully normalized.

New Listings: Up 6.2% YoY nationally
Pending Sales: Down 1.6% YoY
Median Days on Market: Increased to 53 days
Price Reductions: 20.7% of listings had price cuts in June

Despite the growing inventory, the national median list price held steady at $440,950, up just 0.2% from last year, suggesting sellers are reluctant to significantly lower their expectations.

Fed Stays the Course on Rates

Following the June 17–18 Federal Reserve meeting, policymakers showed little support for a rate cut in July, despite pressure from President Trump. Most members signaled that cuts could come later in 2025, possibly in September and December, but remained cautious due to inflation concerns and uncertainty over tariffs. Expect mortgage rates to remain near 6.4% through mid-2026.

South Jersey Shore Market Snapshot (Atlantic & Cape May Counties)

Unlike many softening Sunbelt markets, the South Jersey Shore market remains relatively balanced, though early signs of transition are visible. Here's what the local data says:

South Jersey Shore Market - new_listing_count (2)

South Jersey Shore Market - pending_listing_count

South Jersey Shore Market - days_on_market

South Jersey Shore Market - inventory_months (1)

Inventory Levels

Atlantic County: 4.02 months of supply (up 1.8% MoM, up 22.6% YoY)
Cape May County: 4.51 months of supply (down 0.7% MoM, down 1.3% YoY)

This suggests a stable, balanced market, where neither side has clear leverage.

Median Sold Prices

Cape May County: $652,500
Atlantic County: $398,500

Days on Market

Cape May: 32 days
Atlantic: 26 days
Regional Median: ~70 days

Sold-to-List Price Ratios

Cape May County: 97%
Atlantic County: 98%

Pending Sales & New Listings

Pending Listings: 676 in June
New Listings: 468 in June

Policy Spotlight: Major Changes Reshaping Real Estate

Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” (OBBBA) Passes

Signed into law on July 4, this sweeping tax reform delivers significant wins for real estate:

Permanent mortgage interest deduction
Permanent 20% QBI deduction for agents and small businesses
SALT deduction cap quadrupled for 5 years
Protection for 1031 exchanges

These changes solidify tax benefits that support homeownership, investment, and real estate professionals alike.

New NJ Mansion Tax Hits Luxury Sellers

As of June 30, New Jersey’s mansion tax overhaul shifts the burden from buyers to sellers and introduces tiered transfer fees:

Sale Price Range	Seller-Paid Fee
$1M – $2M	1%
$2M – $2.5M	2%
$2.5M – $3M	2.5%
$3M – $3.5M	3%
$3.5M+	3.5%

For example, a $4 million sale now includes a $140,000 supplemental fee, in addition to standard transfer taxes. Sellers must account for this in their pricing and net proceeds strategy.

What It All Means

For Sellers

Strategic pricing is key. The market remains balanced but no longer overheated.
Luxury sellers need to plan around the new mansion tax to protect profitability.
Homes are still selling close to list, but price reductions are creeping up.

For Buyers

There’s more inventory, less competition, and more negotiating power.
Mortgage rates remain high, but new federal tax reforms may help long-term buyers.

For Investors & Agents

This is a market of opportunity—knowledgeable buyers can find value.
The new tax structure and macro environment favor long-term planning and professional guidance.

Final Thoughts

The South Jersey Shore real estate market stands apart from national trends. While much of the U.S. faces softening demand and falling prices, our market remains relatively balanced with stable pricing and active interest, especially in sought-after coastal towns. That said, both buyers and sellers need to be strategic—because affordability remains tight, luxury sales are more heavily taxed, and interest rate relief is still months away.